The Arab "Spring" looks less than rosy as Egypt looks less stable. Their adherence to the peace treaty with Israel is becoming more questionable daily, and the flow of arms to the Gaza strip is likely to increase with any increase in Egyptian unrest. This jeopardizes traffic through the Suez Canal.
Increasingly militant Iran (whom i personally believe has their greasy fingers all over the ferment in the middle east since before the 2nd Iraq war) is certainly able to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, threatening oil supply.
In my post below I outline how China has upped the ante by several hundred miles in the South China placing plausible deniability mechanisms for aggression at sea, threatening oil supplies.
http://steelgeneral.blogspot.com/2012/12/china-expands-claims-on-south-china-sea.html
These three trade routes are each creditied with "have an impact on world energy prices, etc", what is going to be the impact if all three are upset at once?
While not at the level of the above, the Ukraine is still smouldering with Tymoshenko still in jail and N. European gas (LPG) and oil at risk.
Sadly i do not have the time to inspect known land based choke points for oil/gas, but i have enough left in RAM to hope Chavez expires and his machine is dismantled in Venezuela.
No comments:
Post a Comment