Climate Change, Geopolitical that is.

Is there a perfect storm brewing?

The Arab "Spring" looks less than rosy as Egypt looks less stable.  Their adherence to the peace treaty with Israel is becoming more questionable daily, and the flow of arms to the Gaza strip is likely to increase with any increase in Egyptian unrest.  This jeopardizes traffic through the Suez Canal.

Increasingly militant Iran (whom i personally believe has their greasy fingers all over the ferment in the middle east since before the 2nd Iraq war) is certainly able to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, threatening oil supply.

In my post below I outline how China has upped the ante by several hundred miles in the South China placing plausible deniability mechanisms for aggression at sea, threatening oil supplies.
http://steelgeneral.blogspot.com/2012/12/china-expands-claims-on-south-china-sea.html


These three trade routes are each creditied with "have an impact on world energy prices, etc", what is going to be the impact if all three are upset at once?


While not at the level of the above, the Ukraine is still smouldering with Tymoshenko still in jail and N. European gas (LPG) and oil at risk.

Sadly i do not have the time to inspect known land based choke points for oil/gas, but i have enough left in RAM to hope Chavez expires and his machine is dismantled in Venezuela.

China expands claims on South China Sea, adds clout

China has announced an increased military presence in the South China Sea.

First Passports are printed showing China's ownership of the SCS, infuriating many neighbors.


Then they increase the powers of their maritime patrols:
https://twitter.com/XHNews/status/273382071014158336

This move aggravates ASEAN:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/30/us-china-seas-asean-idUSBRE8AT09120121130

From the above article:

"China claims virtually the entire sea. The Philippines, Taiwan, Vietnam, Brunei and Malaysia claim various parts."
".... South China Sea has some of the world's busiest shipping lanes. More than half the globe's oil tanker traffic passes through it."

"New rules, which come into effect on January 1, will allow police in the southern Chinese province of Hainan to board and seize control of foreign ships which "illegally enter" Chinese waters and order them to change course or stop sailing, the official China Daily reported."

End quote

The power is in place in the Chinese mind, now they add clout by instituting "Cross Providence Patrols" which serves the purpose turning their "Police" patrols into a unified force.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/cndy/2012-11/09/content_15899201.htm


From the above article:
"At present, the Maritime Safety Administration will arrange two or three patrols in the South China Sea aimed at preventing illegal activities including discharging excessive pollutants into the sea.
Shen Chunsheng, deputy director of the Guangxi Maritime Safety Administration, said the joint patrol is expected to travel nearly 1,000 km (620 miles) to detect pollution discharged by ships."

"Another 36 inspection ships are expected to join the China Marine Surveillance fleet by 2013"

End quote

There you have it, China's self justification for projecting their power 400 miles beyond "agreed" boundaries.  It's been done, all that is left is to wait for the naval incidents to start increasing in number and severity.
Sansha City on Yongxing island is their newest and was built to oversee this "police force" proving to me that the Chinese are about to get serious.

Update: 12/3/12, Doesn't take China long to demonstrate their new clout:
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/12/03/vietnam-state-oil-company-says-chinese-boats-cut-cables-being-laid-by-seismic/

Update: China tells Viet Nam to stop exploring for oil in the SCS. This is interesting because it is the first mention of India using Naval assets in support of Viet Nam.  Which ups the pressure in the SCS just a tad more.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/06/us-china-sea-idUSBRE8B50A720121206

Unverified information on the exploration ship incident, from Reuters comments on the article

"Chinese fishing boats to leave the area the Binh Minh 02 was working in, two Chinese ships numbered 16025 and 16028 ran up behind the Vietnamese ship, breaking off it seismic survey cable.
The location of the cable breakage was at 17.26 degree North latitude and 108.02 East longitude, 43 nautical miles southeast of Vietnam’s Con Co island and 20 nautical miles west of the median line between Vietnam and China."

Update 12/9/12 Vietnamese protest Chinese aggression from BBC
Vietnamese Protest Chinese Aggression

Update 12/13/12  Chinese incursions into disputed Japanese airspace:

BBC: Japan accuses China of airspace intrusion over islands

 

Update 1/4/13 : Similar article on PRC's new rules re: the South China Sea

http://thediplomat.com/china-power/hainans-new-maritime-regulations-an-update/ 

South Koreans celebrate Fukushima Disaster

Some more anti japanese sentiment
http://www.japanprobe.com/2011/09/30/korean-soccer-fans-celebrate-japanese-earthquake/

Obama negotiates directly with N. Korea to stall missle tests?

The current administration may have made a secret deal with the N. Korean govenment to stall provacative behavior from the ostracized country.

It appears there was a 4 day long secret US diplomatic mission to N. Korea on or about Aug. 17th.

http://english.donga.com/srv/service.php3?biid=2012112928598

From the article, an english version of the Korean news site Donga.

“There is a high possibility that the U.S. tried to prevent the North from making an armed provocation ahead of the November presidential election and made a proposal corresponding to it,” the source said

While the press is all over Benghazi gate, i hope they manage a few lines on this one.

Update: an article from an english site , the Atlantic Wire:
http://www.theatlanticwire.com/global/2012/11/us-secretly-talking-north-korea/59459/

Update 12/5/12 from another Korean source:The Kyunghyang Shinmum

http://english.khan.co.kr/khan_art_view.html?artid=201210111436367&code=710100

North Korea preparing long range missle launch?

who really knows, but here's an article from Donga, a S. Korean website.

http://english.donga.com/srv/service.php3?biid=2012112668468


Update 11/29/12
http://english.donga.com/srv/service.php3?biid=2012112928588

Update 12/9/12
US threatens economic sanctions for launching:
Donga: US to cut off NK`s money flow if missile test proceeds


Note: Kim Jong UN has not left Pyongyang since August 27th

Donga: Is NK leader staying in P`yang in fear of his personal safety?

North Korea Sends Weapons Grade Aluminum Ingots to Myanmar, Busted

The Asahi Shibum is a pay site, but you can see three or four articles before the limit kicks in.  The following article is about a shipment of weapons material seized about the time our President was visiting Myanmar.
http://ajw.asahi.com/article/asia/korean_peninsula/AJ201211240055

No particular comment, it just didn't make western media as far as i can tell.

Nice article on Chinese Politics

In the 1920's China had a feudal warlord type system with many factions competing for power.  You could count the number of communists in china on one hand (by Chinese population standards).  China, sluggish with a Quing based neo-confucian hangover, was slow to respond to the industrial revolution and the Imperial Japanese exploited the technology to conquer much of China.  WWII is fought and ends, and in the ensuing political chaos the communists, a mere 36000 in number in the 1930's, seize power.
The following Reuters article describes the return of "warlord" types to the Chinese political scene:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/25/us-china-congress-princelings-idUSBRE8AO0CG20121125
 

There are several warlord era movies of modern production that are, imo, quite good.  Donnie Yen, an awesome martial artist, plays in several.  I will mention "Bodyguards and Assassins" and "IP Man" as good examples (IP Man is set during the early stages of Japanese occupation).

Elmo and a choice of words ...

In an article about the Elmo pedophile scandal and whether or not Elmo will survive as a franchise:

... Adam Hanft, CEO of Hanft Projects, a New York-based marketing company. "Elmo transcends the hand up his back,”

Idk what to say, but you would think the head of a marketing company would have a better phrase on hand.

http://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/2012/11/21/kevin-clash-underage-sex-scandal-could-it-mean-end-elmo/

America's Decline ...

Mein Gott! where to begin.  In the week following the election it feels like America has recoiled from the decision of the electorate while the mainstream media continues to blow trumpets for our Nero.
Trying to dig out the truth in this morass of disinformation is harder than it should be. 

Jefferson's "Tyranny of the Masses" has reared it's ugly head and the new "slaves*" have made the panglossian decision to print more money until the house of cards falls down.

Many elements of govenment have bloated to self destruction, a relatively detailed account of San Berandino's  downfall due to union extortion serves as a good example:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/13/us-bernardino-bankrupt-idUSBRE8AC0HP20121113

This brings us to the ugly scenario of government employees, including police and firefighters, siding with a government no longer "by the people".   There are already significant violations of fundamental fulcrums in the checks and balances system.  H.Con.Res 107 addresses one of these obvious transgressions.**
So who's going to union bust when the police are union?   I appreciate the work guys but your pay is out of line.  People are whining about losing twinkies wait until police and fire become problematic.  California just slapped a "fee" on rural dwellers for increased fire protection.  It's not a "tax" it's a "fee" for living near trees.  This fee will help our local fire chief go from 150k a year retirement to 170k.  Ca chopped millions from the fire and police budgets but has money to fund such projects as bullet trains with uncertain funding.  It seems that this "pet project" is going forward without the EPA looking too closely as only the farmers whos land is involved are protesting.  The reason for not addressing their concerns? It costs too much to stop moving forward with the project.
Judge refuses to halt progress of California high-speed rail (Reuters)
I won't even go into the "sanctuary city" concept, as flawed an ideal at the state level as likely to be recorded in history.  The "slaves" have counted themselves and have found that they are mighty.  They reveled in their win:
Dead Pig In Romney shirt thrown on Republican's turf (KTLA)

Was the vote cheated enough to sway the election?  Certainly America was cheated by their media, devoid of impartiality, who has been stuffing the "people" full of garbage for decades.
A picture is worth a thousand words:








 Was there feet on the ground fraud?  Probably, but it was good for Kennedy too and how much fraud may never be determined.  I did find this article:  (i have not had time to fully check out it's claims, however it's and interesting and scary read)
http://fellowshipofminds.wordpress.com/tag/true-the-vote/


That's it for now

* (tip o' the hat to :http://socialismisnotanoption.com/?p=1298#comment-22 for me deciding to sum up the "left", "takers" as simply slaves.

**H.CON.RES.107
Latest Title: Expressing the sense of Congress that the use of offensive military force by a President without prior and clear authorization of an Act of Congress constitutes an impeachable high crime and misdemeanor under Article II, section 4 of the Constitution.
Sponsor: Rep Jones, Walter B., Jr. [NC-3] (introduced 3/7/2012)      Cosponsors (12)
Latest Major Action: 3/7/2012 Referred to House committee. Status: Referred to the House Committee on the Judiciary. Currently 12 co-sponsors:
Rep Benishek, Dan [MI-1] - 5/17/2012
Rep Brooks, Mo [AL-5] - 9/21/2012
Rep Burton, Dan [IN-5] - 4/18/2012
Rep Coffman, Mike [CO-6] - 4/18/2012
Rep Duncan, John J., Jr. [TN-2] - 3/22/2012
Rep Gohmert, Louie [TX-1] - 5/17/2012
Rep Kucinich, Dennis J. [OH-10] - 9/10/2012
Rep McClintock, Tom [CA-4] - 3/28/2012
Rep Michaud, Michael H. [ME-2] - 7/25/2012
Rep Paul, Ron [TX-14] - 7/12/2012
Rep Ribble, Reid J. [WI-8] - 4/27/2012
Rep Woolsey, Lynn C. [CA-6] - 9/14/2012
Rep Grijalva, Raul M. [AZ-7] - 5/10/2012(withdrawn - 5/16/2012)
(taken from the congressional website 11/17/12)

Media bias

A few months ago when this murder was first reported it was "rednecks slaughter innocent immigrant in hate crime"  prompting a round of diplomatic apologies and kowtowing.

Now a few months later, the truth comes out in the backwaters of the KTLA's website

http://www.ktla.com/news/landing/ktla-el-cajon-iraqi-woman-beaten-to-death,0,6474704.story

above story removed, here's another:
http://www.therepublic.com/view/story/f21e26c2501d49b2bf5a3141499585a4/US-Iraqi-Wife-Beaten 

As of 9/1/13 the story was removed

San Berdoo goes belly up from union/government cronyism

From Reuters
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/13/us-bernardino-bankrupt-idUSBRE8AC0HP20121113

Just more rot in California, who is in the lead in voting itself to destruction.  This article is good because it gives more of the politics and players than most.

Follow up on San Berdoo's bankrupcy
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/20/us-sanbernardino-bankruptcy-plan-idUSBRE8AJ07Y20121120 

Follow up Two 11/27/12 : 
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/27/us-usa-debt-bernardo-idUSBRE8AQ04120121127

Follow Up Three 8/25/13:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/25/us-usa-municipality-bernardino-idUSBRE97O07320130825

PRC pushing Okinawa protests?

After talking with a Japanese friend about the protests in Okinawa against the American military presence there i found it interesting that many Japanese are upset at the Okinawa Governor (for taking money from somewhere and using state resources to stage protests) and i was pointed to a blog and a newspaper article.  Unfortunately they are written in Japanese and quick translation is beyond me even with the modern translation tools.  I may work through it in detail with my friend at a later date.

One thing of note is the evidence of the PRC attending (encouraging) the protests.  My friend gave them the status of agent provocateurs.

I take the liberty of copying the photos specifically because i do not wish to lose track of them:

 

original blog/article in Japanese

More information and videos of protests (Japanese) 

Update 11/18/12

Okinawa Govenor, Hirokazu Nakaima, continues his quest

Marine Arrested in Okinawa (FOXNews) 

Update 8/26/2013

Article from Stars and Stripes about Pro-American Japanese protesting America's presence on Okinawa to undermine the "real" protesters.

http://www.stripes.com/news/protests-on-okinawa-aren-t-always-what-they-appear-to-be-1.222240

worst case scenario coming true?

I have said more than once that the rise of the military right in China is the world's worst case scenario.
I have also mentioned that the Chinese military academies rhetoric is increasingly threatening.
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/11/01/some-chinese-military-officers-hawkish-and-outspoken-on-graft-challenge-for/

Something of note from the article:
"Up to seven of the 10 uniformed members of the Central Military Commission, which oversees the armed forces, are set to retire. Members of the new panel are expected to demand an even greater say in decision making — and a tougher line in disputes with other nations."

Until American and Americans take off the rose colored glasses and start knowing enemies for enemies we are truly horked.

Detroit ...

Police tell visitors Detroit is dangerous ....

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2012/10/07/enter-detroit-at-your-own-risk-police-tell-tigers-fans/

if that's what they tell the Tiger fans, what do they tell the opponents? ..... "you all are gonna die if we lose?"

Interesting article on Obama

I ran across this in a comments section on Reuters as i recall:

http://hillbuzz.org/prominent-members-of-chicago-black-community-confirm-those-closest-to-obama-know-there-is-no-second-term-coming-42773

Another article, same catagory (unconfirmed hearsay about the Potus)

http://europenews.dk/en/node/59802

The truth of it is yours to determine.

Bronze age linen reevaluated/Significant Etruscan find

for my records, no particular comment
http://www.foxnews.com/science/2012/09/29/ancient-burial-shroud-surprising-material/

The Etruscans were a vibrant inventive people but rather enigmatic as little is known of them.  This find could up our knowledge of them significantly:
http://www.foxnews.com/science/2012/09/18/first-etruscan-pyramids-spotted-in-italy/

Stem Cells yet again

This article is especially interesting to me as it describes what i have been dealing with for the last 3 years.

http://www.foxnews.com/health/2012/09/27/reverse-aging-scientists-find-way-to-make-old-muscles-young-again


My body had been wasted by disease and treatment.  i was unable to pick up a 13 inch (al) skillet due to wrist pain.  At 54 and desperate, I went to a Doctor who was not "mainstream".  He looked at my blood "Live" via darkfield microscopy.  What was notable is that all the blood cells looked like 4 pointed throwing stars (shiruken) and not particularly lively.

After treatments (focusing on operation scars, notably ACL rebuild scars) that included (pig) stem cells, i knew within two days i had been fixed .. "deep".  It was 3 or 4 days before i told anyone i thought he REALLY fixed me.  I would have guessed my physical age at the time (largely on the state of my metasternum) at well over 70.  I weighed maybe 145 pounds down from about 185.

Due to expense i could not continue to visit the Doc, so i obtained stem cells (the ones already used on me) from Europe in a dicey way.  I have taken a vial (oral, sub-lingual) on the average of every two months (more earlier, last one was a few months ago) for about 3 years now.

I had to come up with new terms for the feelings involved.. "regrowing pains" is probably the best.  It has been a terrible anatomy lesson.  But the gain has been tremendous.
I can now lift the damn skillet, and the dutch oven too.  I'm also up to about 160 now and working on the larger muscles.
And damn me if my muscles don't feel young and springy.

Why is this not more mainstream in America?

Help for PTSD or modern day lobotomy?

As a lifelong victim of "hyper awareness" i'm tempted to ask for one myself... but would i then get hit by a bus the next time i cross the street?

They mess with the most primal of instincts but i hope it gives relief to those that need it.

http://www.foxnews.com/health/2012/09/21/doctor-injection-can-cure-ptsd-in-veterans/

"Putin did it!" ...

.. were Litvenenko's last words, well close to last anyway. Here is an article with an update on the political situation/fallout. It's not if the Putinite government was involved, it's whether it's worth the political fallout, such as Litvenenko's involvement with the English intelligence agencies. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-19660441

Update 12/13/12
BBC: Litvenenko working with British Intelligence

Will World War III start?

Ok let's up the stakes on the headline and ask "Are we headed for WWIII?"

Personally, as much as i hate to face it, i think so.  Everyone before the first two world wars thought that humans had reached "enlightenment" and would not fight again on a global scale.  So for me the arguments that "we have evolved beyond war" or "we are too technologically advanced and interconnected" or "commerce will suffer" are not valid in discussions of "Realpolitik".

Friction points of note, largely left out of western media: The Putinites vs. the Ukraine.  Recently the Putinites showed they still knew how to shoot in Georgia.  As a side note, when google earth first came out i said "cool" and took a look at Petropavlovsk.  The old soviet ssbn's were in an obvious state of disrepair (rust) and lashed together 5 and 6 deep side by side to their moorings.  About a year or two ago, they were "cleaner" and showed signs of having been moved around. Now many are gone leaving behind orderly docks.  The Putinites have been having some fun with their assets, running MiG's into western Naval drills, overflights of American Naval assets and other assorted provocations.  They appear to me getting bolder by the day and (the Ukraine's) Tymschenko is calling for revolution from her jail cell.  Will the people of the Ukraine revolt and the Putinites step in to keep their catspaw in power?  Stay tuned to that channel.

The S. Koreans and Japan have recently had a tiff over territory but it reached a higher angst level with the S. Korean President calling for a Japanese apology over WWII war crimes (comfort women).  What is clear from western media is that S. Korea demanded that the Emperor deliver the apology, however what is missed in the papers i have read is that they demanded that the Emperor kneel.  I have this on good account from a Japanese friend and they are terribly upset over the demand.  China publicly calls for restraint and calm while driving wedges between the Japanese and the S. Koreans under the table (response to the "Asian Pivot").

The Paki's and India have their own problems in Kashmir and any surrounding conflict will likely cause them to try and settle old scores

As far as the middle east goes,.. I'll just say that since WWII it has never been a good omen when Egyptian tanks and troops are moved into the Sinai (straddling the Suez with firepower in case they decide to close it).  Iran's greasy fingers are all over the ferment in the middle east.  The If and or when they go nuclear question rises to the level of any crisis most people alive today can remember.  Allowing a baby state like Iran to have a nuke is like giving a toddler a six shooter.  The US and other western powers are morally obligated to stop them.  The consequences of appeasement here will be devastating.

Mexico just had it's second largest city held hostage by cartels including most of the state of Jalisco (more than 20 simultaneous roadblocks) which includes a significant European/American/Canadian/Japanese retirement community at Lake Chapala.  Leading me to comment about local/internal security...
We now have enought 5th columns to support a roof; La Raza-Mecha, the NBPP,  OWS, and the followers of the prophet.   These people need to be held accountable for their loyalties, swear loyalty to the US first, and if you are not willing to do so, face deportation to somewhere that agrees with you.  Europe had best watch their immigrant populations as the middle east heats up.  There is no Geneva convention to many of the players in this game

To paraphrase Winchell or Cronkite "History's terrible geography lesson is about to begin."
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